Development of a forecasting model of the change in the volume of international cargo transportation in automobile transport
Keywords:
international transportation, systems analysis, export-import cargo, road transport, linear function, time series, least squares method, model, forecasting
Abstract
This article analyzes the changes in international freight traffic in road transport and predicts the changes in the results in subsequent periods using the least squares method. At the same time, the developed linear model is checked for reliability using the criteria of mean absolute deviation, mean square deviation, variability and correlation coefficients, the changes in export-import volumes are predicted in 2025-2027, and the necessary recommendations are developed.
References
[1] Marupov M., Yusufkhonov Z. – CHOICE OF THE OPTIMUM FORECASTING MODEL IN DIFFERENT VALUE OF INITIAL INFORMATION. UNIVERSUM. pр. 23-26.
[2] Ceder A. – Public-Transport Automated Timetables using Even Headway and Even Passenger Load Concepts Transportation, 32nd Australasian Transport Research Forum. 2009. pp.1-17.
[3] Жураев М. Н., Ахмедов Д. Т., Мустанов О. Г., Юсуфхонов З. Ю. – Оценка влияния состояния дорожной инфраструктуры на характер координационной модели. Universum: технические науки. 2022. cтр. 2-3, 19-24.
[4] Kosimov M. – PECULIARITIES OF THE ORGANIZATION OF LOGISTICS SERVICES IN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT. In ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE TRANSITION TO A DIGITAL ECONOMY. 2020. pp. 44-49.
[5] Giyasidinov A. Sh., Maxmudov J., Samatov G. A., Sarvirova N. S. – E-CMR-an impulse to innovative development of the transport industry. International Engineering Journal For Research & Development. 2020. pр 5-6.
[6] Саматов Г. А., Сарвирова Н. С. – Эффективность создания экономической системы цифровых транспортных коридоров. Транспорт в интеграционных процессах мировой экономики. 2020. cтр. 77-78.
[7] Атаджанова З. С., Мурадов А. С. – Пути развития логистической инфраструктуры железнодорожного транспорта. Логистика-евразийский мост. 2019. pp. 22-26.
[8] Murodov A., Atajanova Z., Yusufkhonov Z. – DETERMINATION OF THE MAIN CRITERIA WHEN SELECTING CARGO TRANSPORTATION. UNIVERSUM. рр 27-29.
[9] Jyraev M., Yusufkhanov Z., Akhmedov D. – Modeling the system of vehicle and driver activity. Universum: технические науки, 2022 (1-3 (94)), pp. 71-73.
[10] Urokovich K. A., Axmedovich M. I., Dostmurodovich S. O. XALQARO MARSHRUTLARDA YUK OQIMLARINI O‘Z MUDDATIDA YETKAZIB BERISHNI REJALASHTIRISH. Eurasian Journal of Academic Research. 2024. 4(2-2), 73-78.
[2] Ceder A. – Public-Transport Automated Timetables using Even Headway and Even Passenger Load Concepts Transportation, 32nd Australasian Transport Research Forum. 2009. pp.1-17.
[3] Жураев М. Н., Ахмедов Д. Т., Мустанов О. Г., Юсуфхонов З. Ю. – Оценка влияния состояния дорожной инфраструктуры на характер координационной модели. Universum: технические науки. 2022. cтр. 2-3, 19-24.
[4] Kosimov M. – PECULIARITIES OF THE ORGANIZATION OF LOGISTICS SERVICES IN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT. In ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE TRANSITION TO A DIGITAL ECONOMY. 2020. pp. 44-49.
[5] Giyasidinov A. Sh., Maxmudov J., Samatov G. A., Sarvirova N. S. – E-CMR-an impulse to innovative development of the transport industry. International Engineering Journal For Research & Development. 2020. pр 5-6.
[6] Саматов Г. А., Сарвирова Н. С. – Эффективность создания экономической системы цифровых транспортных коридоров. Транспорт в интеграционных процессах мировой экономики. 2020. cтр. 77-78.
[7] Атаджанова З. С., Мурадов А. С. – Пути развития логистической инфраструктуры железнодорожного транспорта. Логистика-евразийский мост. 2019. pp. 22-26.
[8] Murodov A., Atajanova Z., Yusufkhonov Z. – DETERMINATION OF THE MAIN CRITERIA WHEN SELECTING CARGO TRANSPORTATION. UNIVERSUM. рр 27-29.
[9] Jyraev M., Yusufkhanov Z., Akhmedov D. – Modeling the system of vehicle and driver activity. Universum: технические науки, 2022 (1-3 (94)), pp. 71-73.
[10] Urokovich K. A., Axmedovich M. I., Dostmurodovich S. O. XALQARO MARSHRUTLARDA YUK OQIMLARINI O‘Z MUDDATIDA YETKAZIB BERISHNI REJALASHTIRISH. Eurasian Journal of Academic Research. 2024. 4(2-2), 73-78.
Published
2025-03-31
How to Cite
Khudaynazarov, F. (2025). Development of a forecasting model of the change in the volume of international cargo transportation in automobile transport. Journal of Transport, 2(1), 151-153. https://doi.org/10.56143/jot-journal.v2i1.265
Section
Transport Process Organization and Logistics